Counties With Highest Vaccination Rates See More COVID-19 Cases Than Least Vaccinated

Authors: Petr Svab April 4, 2022 Updated: April 5, 2022 THE EPOCH TIMES

U.S. counties with the highest rates of vaccination against COVID-19 are currently experiencing more cases than those with the lowest vaccination rates, according to data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The 500 counties where 62 to 95 percent of the population has been vaccinated detected more than 75 cases per 100,000 residents on average in the past week. Meanwhile, the 500 counties where 11 to 40 percent of the population has been vaccinated averaged about 58 cases per 100,000 residents.

The data is skewed by the fact that the CDC suppresses figures for counties with very low numbers of detected cases (one to nine) for privacy purposes. The Epoch Times calculated the average case rates by assuming the counties with the suppressed numbers had five cases each on average.

The least vaccinated counties tended to be much smaller, averaging less than 20,000 in population. The most vaccinated counties had an average population of over 330,000. More populous counties, however, weren’t more likely to have higher case rates.

Even when comparing counties of similar population, the ones with the most vaccinations tended to have higher case rates than those that reported the least vaccinations.

Among counties with populations of 1 million or more, the 10 most vaccinated had a case rate more than 27 percent higher than the 10 least vaccinated. In counties with populations of 500,000 to 1 million, the 10 most vaccinated had a case rate almost 19 percent higher than the 10 least vaccinated.

In counties with populations of 200,000 to 500,000, the 10 most vaccinated had case rates around 55 percent higher than the 10 least vaccinated.

The difference was more than 200 percent for counties with populations of 100,000 to 200,000.

For counties with smaller populations, the comparison becomes increasingly difficult because so much of the data is suppressed.

Another problem is that the prevalence of testing for COVID-19 infections isn’t uniform. A county may have a low case number on paper because its residents are tested less often.

The massive spike in infections during the winter appears to have abated in recent weeks. Detected infections are down to less than 30,000 per day from a high of over 800,000 per day in mid-January, according to CDC data. The seven-day average of currently hospitalized dropped to about 11,000 on April 1, from nearly 150,000 in January.

The most recent wave of COVID-19 has been attributed to the Omicron virus variant, which is more transmissible but less virulent. The variant also seems more capable of overcoming any protection offered by the vaccines, though, according to the CDC, the vaccines still reduce the risk of severe disease.

COV19 cases hit a 7 month low in the US while spiking world wide, especially in India and Brazil

Axios reported on May 6 that 20 of the United States have declined in reported cases of COV19 and only 10 have increased slightly. The sharpest declines were reported in NJ (40%) and Connecticut (30%). The New York Post reported that as of May 2, less than 1.5 % of NY State’s population tested positive for Covid for the first time since Nov. 6, 2020. Hospitalizations and death rates continue to decline in the US as well. Axios reported that as of May 6, 41% of American adults were fully vaccinated. Both articles attribute the declining infections rates to this effort. A Bloomberg article posted on May 6 reports that COV19 incidence is down 96% in the UK and 99% in Israel due to high levels of vaccination.

View the Axios article

Meanwhile, in much of the world, there has been an alarming spike in new infections. According to the World Health Organization, the number of COV19 cases reported worldwide in the last two weeks of April exceeded the total of confirmed infections during the first six months of the pandemic (New York Daily News report, May 3) . India and Brazil have been the hardest hit and are severely lacking in resources to care for the sick. The WHO is calling on other nations to share vaccines and medical supplies with those being hardest hit. President Biden pledged to send multiple military transports to India with oxygen and medical supplies. Although the WHO states that the lack of vaccines are “part of the problem” these outbreaks have raised fears of new variants that may be vaccine resistant popping up across the world.

view the New York Daily News article

Surprisingly, the most highly vaccinated nation in the world, Seychelles, is among those experiencing a recent surge in cases. While over 62% of their adult population is fully vaccinated, they saw an almost 75% increase in active cases in the last week of April. Sixteen percent of those who became ill were tourists, two thirds of whom were not fully vaccinated, There was a slight relaxing of restrictions during Easter and the presence of the South African B.1.351 variant was found in Seychelle in February. In spite of these possible contributing factors, the question remains why this surge in Seychelles? Over 50% of the adult population received the Sinopharm vaccine and the remainder, a version of the AstraZeneca vaccine called Covshield, which in a study proved to be less effective against the South African Covid variant. Daniel Lucey, Clinical Professor of Medicine at Dartmouth Geisel School of Medicine, was quoted as saying, “Given the widespread international use of these two vaccines there are global implications to what is happening now in the Seychelles.” Much research remains to be done!

View the Seychelle article

No vaccine is 100% effective

The Los Angeles Times reports on an 80 year old clinical psychologist who contracted COVID one month after receiving the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine, and died in intensive care. Because he had been vaccinated, his doctors did not think to test him for the virus until he was hospitalized. The CDC estimates that less than .008% of those fully vaccinated have gotten infected with COVID of whom about 1% have died. Dr. John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley, urges people to keep this report in perspective saying “No suit of armor is 100% effective,” and the chances of getting struck by lightening are higher than this. The article discusses and links to several studies of breakthrough infections, and some of the research questions being pursued about why breakthrough infections occurred and if there are commonalities in people for whom the vaccine was not effective.

View article LA Times, “Scientists scramble to see why, in rare cases, even the vaccinated can get COVID-19”