Risk of severe COVID-19 disease with ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers: cohort study including 8.3 million people

  1. Julia Hippisley-Cox1, Duncan Young2,3, Carol Coupland4, Keith M Channon5, Pui San Tan6, David A Harrison7, Kathryn Rowan8,  Paul Aveyard6, Ian D Pavord9, Peter J Watkinson5,10
  2. Correspondence to Prof Julia Hippisley-Cox, Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 

Abstract

Background 

There is uncertainty about the associations of angiotensive enzyme (ACE) inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) drugs with COVID-19 disease. We studied whether patients prescribed these drugs had altered risks of contracting severe COVID-19 disease and receiving associated intensive care unit (ICU) admission.

Methods 

This was a prospective cohort study using routinely collected data from 1205 general practices in England with 8.28 million participants aged 20–99 years. We used Cox proportional hazards models to derive adjusted HRs for exposure to ACE inhibitor and ARB drugs adjusted for sociodemographic factors, concurrent medications and geographical region. The primary outcomes were: (a) COVID-19 RT-PCR diagnosed disease and (b) COVID-19 disease resulting in ICU care.

Findings 

Of 19 486 patients who had COVID-19 disease, 1286 received ICU care. ACE inhibitors were associated with a significantly reduced risk of COVID-19 disease (adjusted HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) but no increased risk of ICU care (adjusted HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.06) after adjusting for a wide range of confounders. Adjusted HRs for ARBs were 0.63 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.67) for COVID-19 disease and 1.02 (95% CI 0.83 to 1.25) for ICU care.

There were significant interactions between ethnicity and ACE inhibitors and ARBs for COVID-19 disease. The risk of COVID-19 disease associated with ACE inhibitors was higher in Caribbean (adjusted HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.28) and Black African (adjusted HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.59) groups than the white group (adjusted HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.70). A higher risk of COVID-19 with ARBs was seen for Black African (adjusted HR 1.24, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.58) than the white (adjusted HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.62) group.

Interpretation 

ACE inhibitors and ARBs are associated with reduced risks of COVID-19 disease after adjusting for a wide range of variables. Neither ACE inhibitors nor ARBs are associated with significantly increased risks of receiving ICU care. Variations between different ethnic groups raise the possibility of ethnic-specific effects of ACE inhibitors/ARBs on COVID-19 disease susceptibility and severity which deserves further study.

Link between fever, diarrhea, severe COVID-19, and persistent anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies

Authors: By Dr. Liji Thomas, MD Jan 7 2021

Ever since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began, there have been many attempts to understand the nature and duration of immunity against the causative agent, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

A new preprint research paper appearing on the medRxiv* server describes a link between the persistence of neutralizing antibodies against the virus, disease severity, and specific COVID-19 symptoms.

Permanent immunity is essential if the pandemic is to end. In the earlier SARS epidemic, antibodies were found to last for three or more years after infection in most patients. With the current virus, it may last for six or more months at least, as appears from some reports. Other researchers have concluded that immunity wanes rapidly over the same period, with some patients who were tested positive for antibodies becoming seronegative later on. This discrepancy may be traceable to variation in testing methods, sample sizes and testing time points, as well as disease severity.

Study details

The current study looked at a population of over a hundred convalescent COVID-19 patients, testing most of them for antibodies at five weeks and three months from symptom resolution.

The researchers used a multiplex assay that measured the Immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels against four SARS-CoV-2 antigens, one from SARS-CoV, and four from circulating seasonal coronaviruses. In addition, they carried out an inhibition assay against SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor-binding domain (RBD)-angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) binding and a neutralization assay against the virus. The antibody titers were then plotted against various clinical features and demographic factors.

Antibody titers higher in COVID-19 convalescents

The researchers found that severe disease is correlated with advanced age and the male sex. Patients with underlying vascular disease were more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19, but those with asthma were relatively spared.

Convalescent COVID-19 patients had higher IgG levels against all four SARS-CoV-2 antigens, relative to controls, and in 98% of cases, at least one of the tests was likely to show higher binding compared to controls. IgGs targeting the viral spike and RBD were likely to be much more discriminatory between SARS-CoV-2 patients and controls. Interestingly, anti-SARS-CoV IgG, as well as anti-seasonal betacoronavirus antibodies, were likely to be higher in these patients.

Anti-spike and anti-nucleocapsid IgG levels, as well as neutralizing antibody titers, were higher in convalescent hospitalized COVID-19 patients than in convalescent non-hospitalized patients, and the titers were positively associated with disease severity.Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 persist three months after COVID-19 symptom resolution. Sera from COVID-19 convalescent subjects (n=79) collected 5 weeks (w) and 3 months (m) after symptom resolution were subjected to multiplex assay to detect IgG that binds to SARS-CoV-2 S, NTD, RBD and N antigens (A), to RBD-ACE2 binding inhibition assay (B), and to SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assay (C). Dots, lines, and asterisks in red represent non-hospitalized (n=67) and in blue represent hospitalized (n=12) subjects with lines connecting the two time points for individual subjects (*p<0.05 and **p<0.01 by paired t test).Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 persist three months after COVID-19 symptom resolution. Sera from COVID-19 convalescent subjects (n=79) collected 5 weeks (w) and 3 months (m) after symptom resolution were subjected to multiplex assay to detect IgG that binds to SARS-CoV-2 S, NTD, RBD and N antigens (A), to RBD-ACE2 binding inhibition assay (B), and to SARS-CoV-2 neutralization assay (C). Dots, lines, and asterisks in red represent non-hospitalized (n=67) and in blue represent hospitalized (n=12) subjects with lines connecting the two time points for individual subjects (*p<0.05 and **p<0.01 by paired t test).

Clinical correlates of higher antibody titer

Related Stories

When antibody titers in non-hospitalized subjects were compared with clinical and demographic variables, they found that older males with a higher body mass index (BMI) and a Charlson Comorbidity Index score >2 were likely to have higher antibody titers. COVID-19 symptoms that correlated with higher antibody levels in these patients comprise fever, diarrhea, abdominal pain and loss of appetite. Chest tightening, headache and sore throat were associated with less severe symptoms.

The link between the specific symptoms listed above with higher antibody titers could indicate that they mark a robust systemic inflammatory response, which in turn is necessary for a strong antibody response. Diarrhea may mark severe disease, but it is strange that in this case, it was not more frequent in the hospitalized cohort. Alternatively, diarrhea may have strengthened the immune antibody response via the exposure of the virus to more immune cells via the damaged enteric mucosa. More study is required to clarify this finding.

Potential substitute for neutralizing assay

The binding assay showed that the convalescent serum at five weeks inhibited RBD-ACE2 binding much more powerfully than control serum. Neutralizing activity was also higher in these sera, but in 15% of cases, convalescent patients showed comparable neutralizing antibody titers to those in control sera. On the whole, however, there was a positive association between neutralizing antibody titer, anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG titers, and inhibition of ACE2 binding.

Persistent immunity at three months

This study also shows that SARS-CoV-2 antibodies persist in these patients at even three months after symptoms subside, with persistent IgG titers against the SARS-CoV-2 spike, RBD, nucleocapsid and N-terminal domain antigens. Binding and neutralization assays remained highly inhibitory throughout this period. The same was true of antibodies against the other coronaviruses tested as well, an effect that has been seen with other viruses and could be the result of cross-reactive anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Alternatively, it could be due to the activation of memory B cells formed in response to infection by the seasonal beta-coronaviruses.

Conclusion

IgG titers, particularly against S and RBD, and RBD-ACE2 binding inhibition better differentiate between COVID-19 convalescent and naive individuals than the neutralizing assay,” the researchers concluded.

These could be combined into a single diagnostic test, they suggest, with extreme sensitivity and specificity. The correlation with neutralizing antibody titers could indicate that the neutralizing assay, which is more expensive, sophisticated and expensive, as well as more dangerous for the investigators, could be replaced by the other antibody tests without loss of value.

In short, the study shows that specific antibodies persist for three months at least following recovery; antibody titers correlate with COVID-19-related fever, loss of appetite, abdominal pain and diarrhea; and are also higher in older males with more severe disease, a higher BMI and CCI above 2. Further research would help understand the lowest protective titer that prevents reinfection, and the duration of immunity.

*Important Notice

medRxiv publishes preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or treated as established information.Journal reference:

The Epidemiology, Transmission, and Diagnosis of COVID-19

Authors: By: Neesha C. Siriwardane & Rodney Shackelford, DO, Ph.D. April 15, 2020

Introduction to COVID-19

Coronaviruses are enveloped single-stranded RNA viruses of the Coronaviridae family and order Nidovirales (1). The viruses are named for their “crown” of club-shaped S glycoprotein spikes, which surround the viruses and mediate viral attachment to host cell membranes (1-3). Coronaviruses are found in domestic and wild animals, and four coronaviruses commonly infect the human population, causing upper respiratory tract infections with mild common cold symptoms (1,4). Generally, animal coronaviruses do not spread within human populations, however rarely zoonotic coronaviruses evolve into strains that infect humans, often causing severe or fatal illnesses (4). Recently, three coronaviruses with zoonotic origins have entered the human population; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS) in 2003, Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012, and most recently, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), also termed SARS-CoV-2, which the World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on January 31st, 2020 (4,5). 

COVID19 Biology, Spread, and Origin

COVID-19 replicates within epithelial cells, where the COVID-19 S glycoprotein attaches to the ACE2 receptor on type 2 pneumocytes and ciliated bronchial epithelial cells of the lungs. Following this, the virus enters the cells and rapidly uses host cell biochemical pathways to replicate viral proteins and RNA, which assemble into viruses that in turn infect other cells (3,5,6). Following these cycles of replication and re-infection, the infected cells show cytopathic changes, followed by various degrees of pulmonary inflammation, changes in cytokine expression, and disease symptoms (5-7). The ACE2 receptor also occurs throughout most of the gastrointestinal tract and a recent analysis of stool samples from COVID-19 patients revealed that up to 50% of those infected with the virus have a COVID-19 enteric infection (8).

COVID-19 was first identified on December 31st, 2020 in Wuhan China, when twenty-seven patients presented with pneumonia of unknown cause. Some of the patients worked in the Hunan seafood market, which sold both live and recently slaughtered wild animals (4,9).  Clusters of cases found in individuals in contact with the patients (family members and healthcare workers) indicated a human-to-human transmission pattern (9,10). Initial efforts to limit the spread of the virus were insufficient and the virus soon spread throughout China. Presently COVID-19 occurs in 175 countries, with 1,309,439 cases worldwide, with 72,638 deaths as of April 6th, 2020 (4). Presently, the most affected countries are the United States, Italy, Spain, and China, with the United States showing a rapid increase in cases, and as of April 6th, 2020 there are 351,890 COVID-19 infected, 10,377 dead, and 18,940 recovered (4).  In the US the first case presented on January 19th, 2020, when an otherwise healthy 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Washington State with a four-day history of a persistent dry cough and a two-day history of nausea and vomiting.  The patient had a recent travel history to Wuhan, China. On January 20th, 2020 the patient tested positive for COVID-19.  The patient developed pneumonia and pulmonary infiltrates, and was treated with supplemental oxygen, vancomycin, and remdesivir. By day eight of hospitalization, the patient showed significant improvement (11). 

Sequence analyses of the COVID-19 genome revealed that it has a 96.2% similarity to a bat coronavirus collected in Yunnan province, China. These analyses furthermore showed no evidence that the virus is a laboratory construct (12-14). A recent sequence analysis also found that COVID-19 shows significant variations in its functional sites, and has evolved into two major types (termed L and S). The L type is more prevalent, is likely derived from the S type, and may be more aggressive and spread more easily (14,15). 

Transmission

While sequence analyses strongly suggest an initial animal-to-human transmission, COVID-19 is now a human-to-human contact spread worldwide pandemic (4,9-11). Three main transmission routes are identified; 1) transmission by respiratory droplets, 2) contract transmission, and 3) aerosol transmission (16). Transmission by droplets occurs when respiratory droplets are expelled by an infected individual by coughing and are inhaled or ingested by individuals in relatively close proximity.  Contact transmission occurs when respiratory droplets or secretions are deposited on a surface and another individual picks up the virus by touching the surface and transfers it to their face (nose, mouth, or eyes), propagating the infection. The exact time that COVID-19 remains infective on contaminated surfaces is unknown, although it may be up to several days (4,16). Aerosol transmission occurs when respiratory droplets from an infected individual mix with air and initiate an infection when inhaled (16). Transmission by respiratory droplets appears to be the most common mechanism for new infections and even normal breathing and speech can transmit the virus (4,16,17). The observation that COVID-19 can cause enteric infections also suggests that it may be spread by oral-fecal transmission; however, this has not been verified (8). A recent study has also demonstrated that about 30% of COIVID-19 patients present with diarrhea, with 20% having diarrhea as their first symptom. These patients are more likely to have COVID-19 positive stool upon testing and a longer, but less severe disease course (18).  Recently possible COVID-19 transmission from mother to newborns (vertical transmission) has been documented. The significance of this in terms of newborn health and possible birth defects is currently unknown (19). 

The basic reproductive number or R0, measures the expected number of cases generated by one infection case within a population where all the individuals can become infected. Any number over 1.0 means that the infection can propagate throughout a susceptible population (4). For COVID-19, this value appears to be between 2.2 and 4.6 (4,20,21). Unpublished studies have stated that the COVID10 R0 value may be as high as 6.6, however, these studies are still in peer review. 

COVID-19 Prevention

There is no vaccine available to prevent COVID-19 infection, and thus prevention presently centers on limiting COVID-19 exposures as much as possible within the general population (22). Recommendations to reduce transmission within community include; 1) hand hygiene with simultaneous avoidance of touching the face, 2) respiratory hygiene, 3) utilizing personal protective equipment (PPE) such as facemasks, 4) disinfecting surfaces and objects that are frequently touched, and 5) limiting social contacts, especially with infected individuals  (4,9,17,22). Hand hygiene includes frequent hand-washing with soap and water for twenty seconds, especially after contact with respiratory secretions produced by activities such as coughing or sneezing. When soap and water are unavailable, hand sanitizer that contains at least 60% alcohol is recommended (4,17,22). PPE such as N95 respirators are routinely used by healthcare workers during droplet precaution protocols when caring for patients with respiratory illnesses. One retrospective study done in Hunan, China demonstrated N95 masks were extremely efficient at preventing COVID-19 transfer from infected patients to healthcare workers (4,22-24). It is also likely that wearing some form of mask protection is useful to prevent COVID19 spread and is now recommended by the CDC (25). 

Although transmission of COVID-19 is primarily through respiratory droplets, well-studied human coronaviruses such as HCoV, SARS, and MERS coronaviruses have been determined to remain infectious on inanimate surfaces at room temperature for up to nine days. They are less likely to persist for this amount of time at a temperature of 30°C or more (26). Therefore, contaminated surfaces can remain a potential source of transmission. The Environmental Protection Agency has produced a database of appropriate agents for COVID-19 disinfection (27). Limiting social contact usually has three levels; 1) isolating infected individuals from the non-infected, 2) isolating individuals who are likely to have been exposed to the disease from those not exposed, and 3) social distancing. The later includes community containment, were all individuals limit their social interactions by avoiding group gatherings, school closures, social distancing, workplace distancing, and staying at home (28,29). In an adapted influenza epidemic simulation model, comparing scenarios with no intervention to social distancing and estimated a reduction of the number of infections by 99.3% (28). In a similar study, social distancing was estimated to be able to reduce COVID-19 infections by 92% (29). Presently, these measured are being applied in many countries throughout the world and have been shown to be at least partially effective if given sufficient time (4,17,30). Such measures proved effective during the 2003 SARS outbreak in Singapore (30). 

Symptoms, Clinical Findings, and Mortality 

On average COVID-19 symptoms appear 5.2 days following exposure and death fourteen days later, with these time periods being shorter in individuals 70-years-old or older (31,32). People of any age can be infected with COVID-19, although infections are uncommon in children and most common between the ages of 30-65 years, with men more affected than women (32,33). The symptoms vary from asymptomatic/paucisymptomatic to respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation, septic shock, multiple organ dysfunction, and death (4,9,32,33). The most common symptoms include a dry cough which can become productive as the illness progresses (76%), fever (98%), myalgia/fatigue (44%), dyspnea (55%), and pneumoniae (81%), with less common symptoms being headache, diarrhea (26%), and lymphopenia (44%) (4,32,33). Rare events such as COVID-19 acute hemorrhagic necrotizing encephalopathy have been documented and one paper describes conjunctivitis, including conjunctival hyperemia, chemosis, epiphora, or increased secretions in 30% of COVID-19 patients (34,35). Interestingly, about 30-60% of those infected with COVID-19 also experience a loss of their ability to taste and smell (36). 

The clinical features of COVID-19 include bilateral lung involvement showing patchy shadows or ground-glass opacities identified by chest X-ray or CT scanning (34). Patients can develop atypical pneumoniae with acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome (33). Additionally, elevations of aspartate aminotransferase and/or alanine aminotransferase (41%), C-reactive protein (86%), serum ferritin (63%), and increased pro-inflammatory cytokines, whose levels correlate positively with the severity of the symptoms (4,31-33,37-39).

About 81% of COVID-19 infections are mild and the patients make complete recoveries (38). Older patients and those with comorbidities such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease have a more difficult clinical course (31-33,37-39). In one study, 72% of patients requiring ICU treatment had some of these concurrent comorbidities (40). According to the WHO 14% of COVID-19 cases are severe and require hospitalization, 5% are very severe and will require ICU care and likely ventilation, and 4% will die (41). Severity will be increased by older age and comorbidities (4,40,41). If effective treatments and vaccines are not found, the pandemic may cause slightly less than one-half billion deaths, or 6% of the world’s population (41). Since many individuals infected with COVID-19 appear to show no symptoms, the actual mortality rate of COIVD-19 is likely much less than 4% (42). An accurate understanding of the typical clinical course and mortality rate of COVID-19 will require time and large scale testing.         

COVID-19 Diagnosis

COVID-19 symptoms are nonspecific and a definitive diagnosis requires laboratory testing, combined with a thorough patient history.  Two common molecular diagnostic methods for COVID-19 are real-time reverse polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and high-throughput whole-genome sequencing.  RT-PCR is used more often as it is cost more effective, less complex, and has a short turnaround time. Blood and respiratory secretions are analyzed, with bronchoalveolar lavage fluid giving the best test results (43). Although the technique has worked on stool samples, as yet stool is less often tested (8,43). RT-PCR involves the isolation and purification of the COVID-19 RNA, followed by using an enzyme called “reverse transcriptase” to copy the viral RNA into DNA. The DNA is amplified through multiple rounds of PCR using viral nucleic acid-specific DNA primer sequences. Allowing in a short time the COVID-19 genome ti be amplified millions of times and then easily analyzed (43). RT-PCR COVID-19 testing is FDA approved and the testing volume in the US is rapidly increasing (44,45). The FDA has also recently approved a COVID-19 diagnostic test that detects anti-COVID-19 IgM and IgG antibodies in patient serum, plasma, or venipuncture whole blood (43). As anti-COVID-19 antibody formation takes time, so a negative result does not completely preclude a COVID-19 infection, especially early infections. Last, as COVID-19 often causes bilateral pulmonary infiltrates, correlating diagnostic testing results with lung chest CT or X-ray results can be helpful (4,31-33,37-39).  

Testing for COVID-19 is based on a high clinical suspicion and current recommendations suggest testing patients with a fever and/or acute respiratory illness. These recommendations are categorized into priority levels, with high priority individuals being hospitalized patients and symptomatic healthcare facility workers. Low priority individuals include those with mild disease, asymptomatic healthcare workers, and symptomatic essential infrastructure workers. The latter group will receive testing as resources become available (41,46,47). 

COVID-19 Possible Treatments

Presently research on possible COVIS-19 infection treatments and vaccines are underway (48). At the writing of this article many different drugs are being examined, however any data supporting the use of any specific drug treating COVID-19 is thin as best. A few drugs that might have promise are:  

Hydroxychloroquine

Hydroxychloroquine has been used to treat malarial infections for seventy years and in cell cultures it has anti-viral effects against COVID-19 (49). In one small non-randomized clinical trial in France, twenty individuals infected with COVID-19 who received hydroxychloroquine showed a reduced COVID-19 viral load, as measured on nasopharyngeal viral carriage, compared to untreated controls (50). Six individuals who also received azithromycin with hydroxychloroquine had their viral load lessened further (50). In one small study in China, a similar drug (chloroquine) was superior in reducing COVID-19 viral levels in treated individuals compared to untreated control individuals (51).  These results are preliminary, but promising. 

Remdesivir

Remdesivir is a drug that showed value in treating patients infected with SARS (52). COVID-19 and SARS show about 80% sequence similarity and since Remdesivir has been used to treat SARS, it might have value in treating COVID-19 (52). These trials are underway (48). Remdesivir was also used to treat the first case of COIVD-19 identified within the US (11). There are many other drugs being examined to treat COVID-19 infections, however, the data on all of them is presently slight to none, and research has only begun. There is an enormous research effort underway, and progress should be rapid (48). 

Conclusion

Our understanding of COVID-19 is changing extremely rapidly and new findings come out daily. Combating COVID-19 effectively will require multiple steps; including slowing the spread of the virus through socially isolating and measures such as hand washing. The development of effective drug treatments and vaccines is already a priority and rapid progress is being made (48). Additionally, many areas of the world, such as South American and sub-Saharan Africa, will be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and are likely to have their economies and healthcare systems put under extreme stress. Dealing with the healthcare crisis in these countries will be very difficult. Lastly, several recent viral pandemics (SARS, MERS, and COVID-19) have come from areas where wildlife is regularly traded, butchered, and eaten in conditions that favor the spread of dangerous viruses between species, and eventually into human populations. The prevention of new viral pandemics will require improved handling of wild species, better separation of wild animals from domestic animals, and better regulated and lowered trade in wild animals, such as bats, which are known to be a risk for carrying potentially deadly viruses to human populations (53). 

References

  1. Origin and evolution of pathogenic coronaviruses. Nat Rev Microbiol 2019;17:181-92. 
  2. Cryo-EM structure of the 2019-nCoV spike in the prefusion conformation. Science 2020;367:1260-3.
  3. Structural basis for the recognition of SARS-CoV-2 by full-length human ACE2. Science 2020;367:1444-8. 
  4. CDC. 2019 Novel coronavirus, Wuhan, China. 2020.  https://www.cdc.gov/coronvirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html. Accessed 6 April 2020. 
  5. SARS and MERS: recent insights into emerging coronaviruses.Nat Rev Microbiol 2016;14:523-34. 
  6. Coronaviruses post-SARS: update on replication and pathogenesis. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2009;7:439-50.
  7. The Novel Coronavirus: A Bird’s Eye View. Int J Occup Environ Med. 2020;11:65-71. 
  8. Evidence for Gastrointestinal Infection of SARS-CoV-2. Gastroenterology 2020;S0016-5085:30282-1. 
  9. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1199-1207. 
  10. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating a person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. Lancet 2020;395:514-23. 
  11. First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States.N Engl J Med. 2020;382:929-36. 
  12. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature 2020;579:270-3. 
  13. Full-genome evolutionary analysis of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of a recent recombination event. Infect Genet Evol. 2020;79:104212. 
  14. The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. Nat Med. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0820-9
  15. On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Natl Sci Review 2020. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036 
  16. National Health Commission of People’s Republic of China. Prevent guidelines of 2019-nCoV. 2020. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqfkdt/202001/bc661e49bc487dba182f5c49ac445b.shtml. Accessed 6 April 2020.
  17. Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2 in Viral Shedding Observed at the University of Nebraska Medical Center https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.23.20039446
  18. Digestive symptoms in CVOID-19 patients with mild disease severity: Clinical presentation, stool viral RNA testing, and outcomes. https://journals.lww.com/ajg/Documents/COVID19_Han_et_al_AJG_Preproof.pdf 
  19. Neonatal Early-Onset Infection With SARS-CoV-2 in 33 Neonates Born to Mothers With COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. JAMA Pediatr.  doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.0878. 
  20. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1199-1207. 
  21. Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak. PLoS One 2020;15:e0230405. 
  22. Covid-19 – Navigating the Uncharted. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1268-9. 
  23. Rational use of face masks in the COVID-19 pandemic. Lancet Respir Med. 2020;S2213-2600(20)30134-X. 
  24. Association between 2019-nCoV transmission and N95 respirator use. J Hosp Infect. 2020i:S0195-6701(20)30097-9. 
  25. Recommendation Regarding the Use of Cloth Face Coverings, Especially in Areas of Significant Community-Based Transmission. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html
  26. COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures. J Travel Med. 2020 Feb 28. 
  27. https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2
  28. Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020;S1473-3099(20)30162-6.
  29. The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet, Public Health https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30073-6
  30. SARS in Singapore–key lessons from an epidemic. Ann Acad Med Singapore 2006;35:301-6. 
  31. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1199-207. 
  32. Updated understanding of the outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China. J Med Virol. 2020;92:441-7. 
  33. Clinical features of patents infected with novel 2019 coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet 2020;395:497-506.
  34. COVID-19-associated Acute Hemorrhagic Necrotizing Encephalopathy: CT and MRI Features. Radiology 2020:201187. 
  35. Characteristics of Ocular Findings of Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hubei Province, ChinaJAMA Ophthalmol. 2020. doi: 10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2020.1291. 
  36. A New Symptom of COVID-19: Loss of Taste and Smell. 38. Obesity. 2020. doi: 10.1002/oby.22809.
  37. Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China. N Engl J Med. 2020 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2002032.
  38. Clinical course and mortality risk of severe COVID-19. Lancet 2020;395:507-13. 
  39. The cytokine release syndrome (CRS) of severe COVID-19 and Interleukin-6 receptor (IL-6R) antagonist Tocilizumab may be the key to reduce the mortality. Int J Antimicrob Agents 2020;28:105954. 
  40. Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients with 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China.  JAMA 2020; 323:1061-9. 
  41. Unknown unknowns – COVID-19 and potential global mortality. Early Hum Dev. 2020;144:105026. 
  42. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science 2020 Mar 16. pii: eabb3221.
  43. Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCREuro Surveill. 2020;25. 44. https://www.fda.gov/media/136598/download
  44. https://www.fda.gov/media/136622/download
  45. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Evaluating and Testing Persons for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/hcp/clinical-criteria.html
  46. Infectious Diseases Society of America. COVID-19 Prioritization of Diagnostic Testing. https://www.idsociety.org/globalassets/idsa/public-health/covid-19-prioritization-of-dx-testing.pdf
  47. Race to find COVID-19 treatments accelerates. Science  2020:367;1412-3.
  48. Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine, is effective in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro. Cell Discov. 202018;6:16. 
  49. Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial. Int J Antimicrob Agents 2020:105949. 
  50. Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies. Biosci Trends 2020;14(1):72-73.
  51. Remdesivir for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing COVID-19: An evaluation of the evidence. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2020 2:101647.
  52. Permanently ban wildlife consumption. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1434.2

Clinical determinants of the severity of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PLOS

Abstract

Objective


We aimed to systematically identify the possible risk factors responsible for severe cases.


Methods

We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of science and Cochrane Library for epidemiological studies of confirmed COVID-19, which include information about clinical characteristics and severity of patients’ disease. We analyzed the potential associations between clinical characteristics and severe cases.


Results

We identified a total of 41 eligible studies including 21060 patients with COVID-19. Severe cases were potentially associated with advanced age (Standard Mean Difference (SMD) = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.34–2.12), male gender (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.51, 95% CI:1.33–1.71), obesity (OR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.44–2.46), history of smoking (OR = 1.40, 95% CI:1.06–1.85), hypertension (OR = 2.42, 95% CI: 2.03–2.88), diabetes (OR = 2.40, 95% CI: 1.98–2.91), coronary heart disease (OR: 2.87, 95% CI: 2.22–3.71), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.63–5.41), cerebrovascular disease (OR = 2.47, 95% CI: 1.54–3.97), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR = 2.88, 95% CI: 1.89–4.38), malignancy (OR = 2.60, 95% CI: 2.00–3.40), and chronic liver disease (OR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.06–2.17). Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (OR = 39.59, 95% CI: 19.99–78.41), shock (OR = 21.50, 95% CI: 10.49–44.06) and acute kidney injury (AKI) (OR = 8.84, 95% CI: 4.34–18.00) were most likely to prevent recovery. In summary, patients with severe conditions had a higher rate of comorbidities and complications than patients with non-severe conditions.

Conclusion

Patients who were male, with advanced age, obesity, a history of smoking, hypertension, diabetes, malignancy, coronary heart disease, hypertension, chronic liver disease, COPD, or CKD are more likely to develop severe COVID-19 symptoms. ARDS, shock and AKI were thought to be the main hinderances to recovery.

For More Information: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0250602

Anosmia and dysgeusia in SARS-CoV-2 infection: incidence and effects on COVID-19 severity and mortality, and the possible pathobiology mechanisms – a systematic review and meta-analysis

Authors: Endang Mutiawati, Conceptualization, Data Curation, Resources, Validation, Writing – Original Draft Preparation, Writing – Review & Editing,a,1,2Marhami Fahriani, Conceptualization, Data Curation, Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Writing – Original Draft Preparation, Writing – Review & Editing,3Sukamto S. Mamada, Data Curation, Investigation, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing,4Jonny Karunia Fajar, Conceptualization, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – Review & Editing,3,5Andri Frediansyah, Data Curation, Investigation, Writing – Original Draft Preparation, Writing – Review & Editing,6Helnida Anggun Maliga, Data Curation, Investigation, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing,7Muhammad Ilmawan, Data Curation, Investigation, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing,7Talha Bin Emran, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing,8Youdiil Ophinni, Investigation, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing,9Ichsan Ichsan, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing,3,10Nasrul Musadir, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing,1,2Ali A. Rabaan, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing,11Kuldeep Dhama, Supervision, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing,12Syahrul Syahrul, Supervision, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing,1,2Firzan Nainu, Data Curation, Investigation, Supervision, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing,4 and Harapan aPreparation, Writing – Review & Editing3,10,13

Abstract

Background: The present study aimed to determine the global prevalence of anosmia and dysgeusia in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients and to assess their association with severity and mortality of COVID-19. Moreover, this study aimed to discuss the possible pathobiological mechanisms of anosmia and dysgeusia in COVID-19.

Methods: Available articles from PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and preprint databases (MedRxiv, BioRxiv, and Researchsquare) were searched on November 10th, 2020. Data on the characteristics of the study (anosmia, dysgeusia, and COVID-19) were extracted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline. Newcastle–Ottawa scale was used to assess research quality. Moreover, the pooled prevalence of anosmia and dysgeusia were calculated, and the association between anosmia and dysgeusia in presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was assessed using the Z test.

Results: Out of 32,142 COVID-19 patients from 107 studies, anosmia was reported in 12,038 patients with a prevalence of 38.2% (95% CI: 36.5%, 47.2%); whereas, dysgeusia was reported in 11,337 patients out of 30,901 COVID-19 patients from 101 studies, with prevalence of 36.6% (95% CI: 35.2%, 45.2%), worldwide. Furthermore, the prevalence of anosmia was 10.2-fold higher (OR: 10.21; 95% CI: 6.53, 15.96, p < 0.001) and that of dysgeusia was 8.6-fold higher (OR: 8.61; 95% CI: 5.26, 14.11, p < 0.001) in COVID-19 patients compared to those with other respiratory infections or COVID-19 like illness. To date, no study has assessed the association of anosmia and dysgeusia with severity and mortality of COVID-19.

Conclusion: Anosmia and dysgeusia are prevalent in COVID-19 patients compared to those with the other non-COVID-19 respiratory infections. Several possible mechanisms have been hypothesized; however, future studies are warranted to elucidate the definitive mechanisms of anosmia and dysgeusia in COVID-19.

For More Information: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7993408/

Overweight/obesity as the potentially most important lifestyle factor associated with signs of pneumonia in COVID-19

PLOS
  • Published: November 18, 2020

Abstract

Objective

The occurrence of pneumonia separates severe cases of COVID-19 from the majority of cases with mild disease. However, the factors determining whether or not pneumonia develops remain to be fully uncovered. We therefore explored the associations of several lifestyle factors with signs of pneumonia in COVID-19.

Methods

Between May and July 2020, we conducted an online survey of 201 adults in Germany who had recently gone through COVID-19, predominantly as outpatients. Of these, 165 had a PCR-based diagnosis and 36 had a retrospective diagnosis by antibody testing. The survey covered demographic information, eight lifestyle factors, comorbidities and medication use. We defined the main outcome as the presence vs. the absence of signs of pneumonia, represented by dyspnea, the requirement for oxygen therapy or intubation.

Results

Signs of pneumonia occurred in 39 of the 165 individuals with a PCR-based diagnosis of COVID-19 (23.6%). Among the lifestyle factors examined, only overweight/obesity was associated with signs of pneumonia (odds ratio 2.68 (1.29–5.59) p = 0.008). The observed association remained significant after multivariate adjustment, with BMI as a metric variable, and also after including the antibody-positive individuals into the analysis.

Conclusions

This exploratory study finds an association of overweight/obesity with signs of pneumonia in COVID-19. This finding suggests that a signal proportional to body fat mass, such as the hormone leptin, impairs the body’s ability to clear SARS-CoV-2 before pneumonia develops. This hypothesis concurs with previous work and should be investigated further to possibly reduce the proportion of severe cases of COVID-19.

For More Information: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237799

Pathophysiology of COVID-19:

Mechanisms Underlying Disease Severity and Progression

Authors: Mary Kathryn Bohn,1,2, Alexandra Hall,1 Lusia Sepiashvili,1,2, Benjamin Jung,1,2 Shannon, Steele,1 and Khosrow Adeli1,2,3

The global epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) suggests a wide spectrum of clinical severity, ranging from asymptomatic to fatal. Although the clinical and laboratory characteristics of COVID-19 patients have been well characterized, the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying disease severity and progression remain unclear. This review highlights key mechanisms that have been proposed to contribute to COVID-19 progression from viral entry to multisystem organ failure, as well as the central role of the immune response in successful viral clearance or progression to death.

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by a novel beta-coronavirus known as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As of June 15, 2020, the number of global confirmed cases has surpassed 8 million, with over 400,000 reported mortalities. The unparalleled pathogenicity and global impact of this pandemic has rapidly engaged the scientific community in urgently needed research. Preliminary reports from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention have estimated that the large majority of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases are mild (81%), with ~14% progressing to severe pneumonia and 5% developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis, and/or multisystem organ failure (MOF) (144). Although more data is urgently needed to elucidate the global epidemiology of COVID-19 (80), a wide spectrum of clinical severity is evident, with most patients able to mount a sufficient and appropriate immune response, ultimately leading to viral clearance and case resolution. However, a significant subset of patients present with severe clinical manifestations, requiring life-supporting treatment (51). The pathophysiological mechanisms behind key events in the progression from mild to severe disease remain unclear, warranting further investigation to inform therapeutic decisions. Here, we review the current literature and summarize key proposed mechanisms of COVID-19 pathophysiological progression (FIGURE 1). Key Pathophysiological Mechanisms: Our Current Understanding Viral Invasion The first step in COVID-19 pathogenesis is viral invasion via its target host cell receptors. SARSCoV-2 viral entry has been described in detail elsewhere (138). In brief, SARS-CoV-2 consists of four main structural glycoproteins: spike (S), membrane (M), envelope (E), and nucleocapsid (N). The M, E, and N proteins are critical for viral particle assembly and release, whereas the S protein is responsible for viral binding and entry into host cells (33, 76, 89, 143, 148). Similar to SARS-CoV, several researchers have identified human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as an entry receptor for SARS-CoV-2 (75, 99, 148, 156). SARSCoV-2 is mostly transmissible through large respiratory droplets, directly infecting cells of the upper and lower respiratory tract, especially nasal ciliated and alveolar epithelial cells (161). In addition to the lungs, ACE2 is also expressed in various other human tissues, such as the small intestine, kidneys, heart, thyroid, testis, and adipose tissue, indicating the virus may directly infect cells of other organ systems when viremia is present (77). Interestingly, although the S proteins of SARS-CoV-2 and SARSCoV share 72% homology in amino acid sequences, SARS-CoV-2 has been reported to have a higher affinity for the ACE2 receptor (18, 21, 143). Following host cell binding, viral and cell membranes fuse, enabling the virus to enter into the cell (89). For many coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV, host cell binding alone is insufficient to facilitate membrane fusion, requiring S-protein priming or cleavage by host cell proteases or transmembrane serine proteases (9, 10, 90, 94, 108). Indeed, Hoffman and colleagues demonstrated that S-protein priming by transmembrane serine protease 2 (TMPRSS2), which may be substituted by cathepsin B/L, is required to facilitate SARS-CoV-2 entry into host cells (58). In addition, unlike other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 has been reported to possess a furin-like cleavage site in the S-protein domain, located between the S1 and S2 subunits (31, 138). Furin-like proteases are ubiquitously expressed, albeit at low levels, indicating that S-protein priming at this cleavage site may contribute to the widened cell tropism and enhanced transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 (123). However, whether furin-like protease-mediated cleavage is required for SARS-CoV-2 host entry has yet to be determined. Blocking or inhibiting these processing enzymes may serve as a potential antiviral target (130). Interestingly, SARS-CoV-2 has developed a unique S1/S2 cleavage site in its S protein, characterized by a four-amino acid insertion, which seems to be absent in all other coronaviruses (4). This molecular mimicry has been identified as an efficient evolutionary adaptation that some viruses have acquired for exploiting the host cellular machinery. Once the nucleocapsid is deposited into the cytoplasm of the host cell, the RNA genome is replicated and translated into structural and accessory proteins. Vesicles containing the newly formed viral particles are then transported to and fuse with the plasma membrane, releasing them to infect other host cells in the same fashion (33, 89, 105). Although much progress has been made in our understanding of the mechanisms underlying SARS-CoV-2 invasion, additional research is needed to delineate exactly how cleavage of the S proteins by TMPRSS2 confers viral particle entry as well as how S-protein cleavage by membrane proteases contributes to viral penetration.

For More Information: https://journals.physiology.org/doi/pdf/10.1152/physiol.00019.2020

Role of DAMPs in respiratory virus-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome—with a preliminary reference to SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia

Authors: Walter Gottlieb Land Genes & Immunity volume 22, pages141–160 (2021 )Cite this article

Abstract

When surveying the current literature on COVID-19, the “cytokine storm” is considered to be pathogenetically involved in its severe outcomes such as acute respiratory distress syndrome, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, and eventually multiple organ failure. In this review, the similar role of DAMPs is addressed, that is, of those molecules, which operate upstream of the inflammatory pathway by activating those cells, which ultimately release the cytokines. Given the still limited reports on their role in COVID-19, the emerging topic is extended to respiratory viral infections with focus on influenza. At first, a brief introduction is given on the function of various classes of activating DAMPs and counterbalancing suppressing DAMPs (SAMPs) in initiating controlled inflammation-promoting and inflammation-resolving defense responses upon infectious and sterile insults. It is stressed that the excessive emission of DAMPs upon severe injury uncovers their fateful property in triggering dysregulated life-threatening hyperinflammatory responses. Such a scenario may happen when the viral load is too high, for example, in the respiratory tract, “forcing” many virus-infected host cells to decide to commit “suicidal” regulated cell death (e.g., necroptosis, pyroptosis) associated with release of large amounts of DAMPs: an important topic of this review. Ironically, although the aim of this “suicidal” cell death is to save and restore organismal homeostasis, the intrinsic release of excessive amounts of DAMPs leads to those dysregulated hyperinflammatory responses—as typically involved in the pathogenesis of acute respiratory distress syndrome and systemic inflammatory response syndrome in respiratory viral infections. Consequently, as briefly outlined in this review, these molecules can be considered valuable diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers to monitor and evaluate the course of the viral disorder, in particular, to grasp the eventual transition precociously from a controlled defense response as observed in mild/moderate cases to a dysregulated life-threatening hyperinflammatory response as seen, for example, in severe/fatal COVID-19. Moreover, the pathogenetic involvement of these molecules qualifies them as relevant future therapeutic targets to prevent severe/ fatal outcomes. Finally, a theory is presented proposing that the superimposition of coronavirus-induced DAMPs with non-virus-induced DAMPs from other origins such as air pollution or high age may contribute to severe and fatal courses of coronavirus pneumonia.

Introduction

When the first articles on severe and fatal outcomes of COVID-19 were published, researchers worldwide working in the field of damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs) thought spontaneously: this is the work of DAMPs! And the researchers were surprised that most authors focused on the pathogenetic role of the “cytokine storm” observed in patients developing viral pneumonia-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) without discussing the fundamental part of DAMPs in initiating cytokine production. However, quite admittedly, the dataset on the pathogenetic role of DAMPs in COVID-19 is still too poor to prove their vital pathogenetic role in this challenging disease. On the other hand, there is accumulating evidence indicating that DAMPs are involved in respiratory viral disorders (as in all infectious diseases), culminating in three recent reports on their detection in COVID-19 patients [1,2,3]. This should be reason enough for a short review.

DAMPs in infectious diseases at a glance

The danger/injury model in Immunology, proposed in 1994 [45] and after that several times modified, argues that immune responses are driven by cell stress and tissue injury, including pathogen-caused stress and injury, rather than by the recognition of non-self molecules derived, for example, from pathogenic invaders. The core of this model refers to the generation and emission of DAMPs, that is, molecules that are generated, exposed, or emitted upon any stress, damage, or death of cells.

For More Information: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41435-021-00140-w

The Impact of the Covid 19 Pandemic on Cerebrovascular Disease: CORD-Papers-2021-06-28

Abstract:           

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes a systemic disease that affects nearly all organ systems through infection and subsequent dysregulation of the vascular endothelium. One of the most striking phenomena has been a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)associated coagulopathy. Given these findings, questions naturally emerged about the prothrombotic impact of COVID-19 on cerebrovascular disease and whether ischemic stroke is a clinical feature specific to COVID-19 pathophysiology. Early reports from China and several sites in the northeastern United States seemed to confirm these suspicions. Since these initial reports, many cohort studies worldwide observed decreased rates of stroke since the start of the pandemic, raising concerns for a broader impact of the pandemic on stroke treatment. In this review, we provide a comprehensive assessment of how the pandemic has affected stroke presentation, epidemiology, treatment, and outcomes to better understand the impact of COVID-19 on cerebrovascular disease. Much evidence suggests that this decline in stroke admissions stems from the global response to the virus, which has made it more difficult for patients to get to the hospital once symptoms start. However, there does not appear to be a demonstrable impact on quality metrics once patients arrive at the hospital. Despite initial concerns, there is insufficient evidence to ascribe a causal relationship specific to the pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 on the cerebral vasculature. Nevertheless, when patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 present with stroke, their presentation is likely to be more severe, and they have a markedly higher rate of in-hospital mortality than patients with either acute ischemic stroke or COVID-19 alone.

For More Information: https://covid19-data.nist.gov/pid/rest/local/paper/the_impact_of_the_covid_19_pandemic_on_cerebrovascular_disease

C-Reactive Protein Level May Predict the Risk of COVID-19 Aggravation

Authors: Guyi Wang 1Chenfang Wu 1Quan Zhang 2Fang Wu 3Bo Yu 1Jianlei Lv 2Yiming Li 4Tiao Li 5Siye Zhang 1Chao Wu 6 7 8Guobao Wu 1Yanjun Zhong 1Affiliations expand

Abstract

Background: Clinical findings indicated that a fraction of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients diagnosed as mild early may progress to severe cases. However, it is difficult to distinguish these patients in the early stage. The present study aimed to describe the clinical characteristics of these patients, analyze related factors, and explore predictive markers of the disease aggravation.

Methods: Clinical and laboratory data of nonsevere adult COVID-19 patients in Changsha, China, were collected and analyzed on admission. A logistic regression model was adopted to analyze the association between the disease aggravation and related factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was utilized to analyze the prognostic ability of C-reactive protein (CRP).

Results: About 7.7% (16/209) of nonsevere adult COVID-19 patients progressed to severe cases after admission. Compared with nonsevere patients, the aggravated patients had much higher levels of CRP (median [range], 43.8 [12.3-101.9] mg/L vs 12.1 [0.1-91.4] mg/L; P = .000). A regression analysis showed that CRP was significantly associated with aggravation of nonsevere COVID-19 patients, with an area under the curve of 0.844 (95% confidence interval, 0.761-0.926) and an optimal threshold value of 26.9 mg/L.

Conclusions: CRP could be a valuable marker to anticipate the possibility of aggravation of non-severe adult COVID-19 patients, with an optimal threshold value of 26.9 mg/L.

For More Information: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32455147/